Key data in the first quarter were released. What do you think of the current economic situation？
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 18th Question: The key data of the first quarter was released. What do you think of the current economic situation?
Xinhua News Agency "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporter
In 2023, the first quarterly report of China’s economy was released on the 18th: the gross domestic product (GDP) was 28,499.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%.
On April 18th, the State Council Press Office held a press conference in Beijing. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, introduced the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2023 and answered questions from reporters. Xinhua News Agency reporter Cai Yang photo
Facing the severe and complicated international environment and arduous domestic reform, development and stability tasks, China’s economy has made a good start. What do you think of this report card? The "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporter combed the key data.
GDP increased by 4.5% year-on-year: the economy stabilized and rebounded.
In the first quarter, GDP increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year; The chain increased by 2.2%.
"With the rapid and smooth transition of epidemic prevention and control, various policies and measures to stabilize growth, employment and prices have been put forward, positive factors have accumulated and the national economy has stabilized and rebounded." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
Since the beginning of this year, the World Bank and other international organizations have raised the economic growth forecast of China. "Under the current situation that the overall recovery of the world economy is weak, China’s economy has shown a positive momentum and injected beneficial increments into global growth." World Bank President Malpas said.
Fu Linghui said that considering the low base affected by the epidemic in the second quarter of last year, the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year may be significantly faster than that in the first quarter; With the increase of the base, the growth rate will fall back in the third and fourth quarters. On the whole, however, the endogenous driving force of China’s economic growth is gradually enhanced, and the macro-policies are effective, and the economic operation is expected to improve as a whole.
Total consumption exceeds 11 trillion yuan: the overall recovery is improving.
In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 11,492.2 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, down 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year; The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 66.6%.
With the gradual release of residents’ consumption demand, the growth of upgrading consumption has accelerated, and the consumption of basic life has continued to grow. In the first quarter, the retail sales of goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and decreased by 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
"The overall consumption has shown a good recovery trend." Fu Linghui said that with the continuous efforts of the consumption promotion policy, the market sales have rebounded significantly, especially the service consumption has improved significantly, and the consumption has significantly enhanced the economic growth.
Yang Guangpu, an associate researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that at present, efforts should still be made to enhance residents’ confidence and ability in consumption, do everything possible to increase residents’ income, so that people can spend more confidently, and actively increase quality supply, effectively combine consumption expansion with supply-side structural reform, and continuously release consumption potential.
Fixed assets investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year: the steady growth of investment is expected to continue.
In the first quarter, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 5.1% year-on-year, which was the same as that of the previous year.
Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, China has insisted on expanding domestic demand, actively played the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure, increased investment in key areas and key links, and expanded investment in people’s livelihood, effectively safeguarding and improving people’s lives. The steady growth of investment has effectively enhanced the development potential.
It is worth noting that investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 16%. "The rapid development of high-tech industries is conducive to further enhancing the resilience of China’s industrial chain supply chain, and is conducive to continuously improving China’s industrial added value and its strength in global industrial competition." Xu Zhaoyuan, deputy director of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said.
Yang Guangpu said that with the sustained economic recovery, the technological transformation, transformation and upgrading of traditional industries are expected to accelerate, digital transformation and green and low-carbon transformation continue to advance, and with the implementation of various support policies, investment is expected to maintain steady growth.
Foreign trade increased by 4.8% year-on-year: export growth was higher than expected.
In the first quarter, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In March, the total import and export value was 3.71 trillion yuan, up 15.5% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 23.4% year-on-year and imports increased by 6.1%.
Lu Daliang, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, China’s economic operation has stabilized and rebounded, production and demand have gradually improved, and foreign trade imports and exports have stabilized significantly. "In the first quarter, China’s foreign trade import and export showed strong resilience, and the start was stable and good, laying the foundation for achieving stable and improved foreign trade throughout the year."
Zhuang Rui, a professor at university of international business and economics, said that the rapid export growth is mainly reflected in the bright export of electromechanical and high-tech products represented by new energy vehicles, as well as the improvement of export growth to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and countries with regional comprehensive economic partnership agreements (RCEP) and other trading partners. In addition, due to the narrowing of the year-on-year increase in international commodity prices, the growth rate of imports is relatively low.
CPI rose by 1.3% year-on-year: prices remained stable.
In the first quarter, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate increase, and domestic prices continued to run smoothly.
Stabilizing prices is an important task for doing a good job in economic work this year. Fu Linghui said that the CPI increase continued to fall, mainly affected by some stage factors: after the Spring Festival, the market demand fell, the weather turned warmer, the listing of fresh vegetables increased more, and the prices of some foods fell; The supply of live pigs is sufficient and the price of pork has declined; The international energy market, especially the crude oil market, has generally declined, which has led to lower domestic energy prices and so on.
Although the increase of CPI has declined, the market supply and demand have remained basically stable. In the first quarter, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, which was the same as that in January and February.
"Looking forward to the whole year, China’s industrial and agricultural products and services are well supplied, production and marketing are smoothly connected, the market order is good, and the overall economic recovery trend will gradually appear in prices. It is expected that the overall price level will generally operate in a reasonable range." Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said.
PPI decreased by 1.6% year-on-year: it is expected to gradually return to a reasonable level.
In the first quarter, the national producer price index (PPI) decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, of which the price of means of production decreased by 2.3%.
Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, world economic growth has slowed down, market demand has weakened, supply bottlenecks have eased, and commodity prices have fallen, which has driven down the prices of domestic oil, nonferrous metals and other related industries. In addition, the high base in the same period last year has led to a decline in PPI. Expanded.
Judging from the ring comparison, the PPI is basically stable. In January, PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while in February and March, it was flat.
Fu Linghui said that from the next stage, domestic demand generally tends to pick up, which has a certain pull-up effect on PPI, but the import transmission of international commodity prices still exists, and with the high base in the same period last year, PPI may be in a downward range in the short term. However, with the recovery of domestic economy, cardinal utility will gradually decline, and PPI will gradually return to a reasonable level.
The national industrial added value increased by 3% year-on-year: achieving steady growth.
In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than that in the fourth quarter of last year.
From the perspective of industry, among the 41 major industries in the first quarter, 23 industries maintained growth year-on-year, with a growth rate of over 50%. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate of added value of 20 industries rebounded.
Production of small and micro enterprises has improved. In the first quarter, the added value of small and micro enterprises above designated size increased by 3.1% year on year. According to the questionnaire survey, the prosperity index of small and micro-industrial enterprises under the regulations increased by 1.7 percentage points over the fourth quarter of last year, and the proportion of enterprises with good production and operation conditions increased by 1.2 percentage points.
"In the first quarter, the steady growth policy continued to be effective, the market demand picked up, the supply chain of the industrial chain accelerated to recover, and industrial production showed positive changes, but there was uncertainty in the growth of external demand, and the prices of industrial products were still falling." Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, it is necessary to deepen the structural reform of the supply side, vigorously transform and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and expand emerging industries, and promote the healthy development of industries.
The average unemployment rate in national urban surveys is 5.5%: the employment situation has improved.
In the first quarter, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.5%, down 0.1 percentage point from the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the urban survey unemployment rate in March was 5.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from February.
In March, the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25 to 59 was 4.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; The unemployment rate of migrant agricultural registered labor decreased by 0.7 percentage points from last month … … The unemployment rate of the main employment groups has dropped significantly, and the employment of migrant workers has accelerated.
Stabilizing business entities is the key to stabilizing employment. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and other three departments have issued a notice at the end of March, which will continue to implement the policy of reducing unemployment and industrial injury insurance rates until the end of 2024. It is estimated that the average annual burden reduction this year and next will be about 180 billion yuan, and all kinds of business entities including small and medium-sized enterprises will generally benefit.
Fu Linghui said that with the economic recovery and the expansion of employment demand, the employment situation is expected to continue to improve. However, in view of the structural contradiction of employment, we should continue to increase employment assistance for young people, especially college graduates, accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading, and provide more high-quality jobs. (Reporter Wei Yukun, Zou Duowei, Han Jianuo, Zhang Bowen)