Huang Qifan believes that the huge annual real estate transaction volume of 16 trillion to 17 trillion will surely become a historical turning point, and the future market will gradually shrink.

　　About 97,000 real estate enterprises are gradually entering the deep-water period of transformation. With the implementation of measures such as deleveraging and stabilizing finance, China’s real estate sector will enter the "second half" era of stock management.

　　"Overall, the era of China’s real estate in short supply is over." Huang Qifan, vice chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center, said at the World Chinese Real Estate Society held on July 13th, "The huge annual transaction volume of real estate in China is bound to become a historical turning point, and the market will gradually shrink in the future; Therefore, in the next decade, I predict that the real estate growth rate will not be higher than China’s GDP and M2 growth rate, but it will not fall too fast and will enter a stage of steady growth in an all-round way. "

　　How should real estate enterprises with an average debt of more than 80% go into battle lightly? "Learning from the experience of developed countries, in fact, financial transformation is also crucial for housing enterprises." Wang He, secretary-general of the World Chinese Real Estate Society, said, "The transformation of real estate enterprises should start from the financial field, such as REITs (real estate trust and investment funds) to reduce the burden on enterprises."

　　At present, nearly 100,000 real estate enterprises registered in industrial and commercial registration have become the epitome of China’s real estate development in the first half.

　　According to Gao Bo, director of the Center for Urban and Real Estate Research of Nanjing University, the development of real estate has contributed to GDP, promoted the process of urbanization, promoted land finance and housing finance, and reduced financial risks. Only by taking the modernization of the housing system as a prerequisite can the real estate industry really do it.

　　For example, in 2018, the added value of the real estate industry in the United States accounted for about 13.2% of GDP. In the first three quarters of the same year, the added value of real estate in China was about 4.36 trillion, accounting for 6.69% of GDP.

　　There is no doubt about this step of transformation. How to turn? Many experts in the research field believe that on the one hand, it is necessary to shift from extensive expansion strategy to refined operation, on the other hand, enterprises need to fundamentally change their financial model.

　　"The transformation of real estate enterprises should pay attention to ‘ Lianggao ’ That is, high quality and high technology. " Jia Shenghua, director of the Real Estate Research Center of Zhejiang University, said, "High quality means that housing enterprises should return to their final purpose of residence, not quantitative expansion; High technology means that more technical means need to be integrated into the development and management of houses. "

　　"REITs are like an IPO of an office building, and the share can be transferred, traded and distributed." Hu Feng, a senior director of dtz and head of the North China District Valuation and Consulting Service Department, told the First Financial Reporter, "It is equivalent to sharing this building. If you buy a share, you can enjoy the benefits of the share. This share can be transferred and transferred, so the assets will flow."

　　According to the First Financial Reporter, Ping An Real Estate, Poly Real Estate, Xuhui and Longhu have also stepped in since CITIC, the first private equity REITs in China, was launched in May 2014. According to the data of Industrial Securities, as of May 12 this year, 48 REITs have been issued in China, with a total amount of 93.42 billion yuan.

　　The REITs research group of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University estimates that the market size of REITs in China is about 4 trillion to 12 trillion.

　　Liu Qiao, dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University and professor of finance, believes that REITs will probably become one of the most important starting points for China’s financial system reform or supply-side reform in the next few years.

　　Liu Qiao also wrote in CBN that REITs are not limited to real estate. At present, the problem of financing difficulty and high cost for enterprises in China, especially private enterprises, has been very prominent. The introduction of REITs is conducive to reducing systemic financial risks and promoting the development of real estate industry and upstream and downstream industries.

　　"If the capital operation in previous years was to borrow money to get land, then in the second half of the stock management era, we must calm down and operate our assets well." Chen Xiaoou, independent director of Yuexiu Real Estate Trust, told the reporter, "We are providing asset management services for Chengdu Luhu Eco-city, such as business format and asset sorting, and later asset securitization."

　　In the era of stock management, in addition to residential real estate, building economy will also become an important carrier to adjust industrial structure.

　　According to Zhu Jianhui, head of the research department of Jones Lang LaSalle in West China, "At present, the building economy is also operating under the dual-track background of urbanization and urban renewal; We also found two characteristics: first, the demand side of building transformation mostly comes from technology-driven enterprises such as we work and incubation centers; Second, real estate buildings such as Joy City began to build amusement parks, maternal and child rooms, etc., paying more attention to the humanistic value brought to consumers. "

　　The quality transformation of housing enterprises under the empowerment of many technologies has gradually landed nationwide. In other words, housing enterprises really began to bid farewell to the extensive and expansive development model in the past, focusing on social services that are people-oriented and meet domestic demand.

　　How does technology drive the development of cities and real estate? According to Wang Yeqiang, director of the Land Economy and Real Estate Research Office of the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of China Academy of Social Sciences, on the one hand, smart cities should be built through technologies such as the Internet of Things, cloud computing and big data to meet the needs of residents’ production and life; On the one hand, infrastructure and industrial informatization should be highly developed.

　　Some large real estate enterprises are integrating big data and Internet of Things into residential management and services.

　　Wu Zhihua, CEO of Greentown Service Group, said, "Take a certain community as an example, the proportion of elderly people over 60 years old is 10.98%, and the proportion of second children in the community is higher than the national average; Through this kind of analysis, we have laid out the services of children’s education, nutrition and rehabilitation for the elderly in the community. At present, 130,000 people have established health records on our platform, and 400,000 elderly users are enjoying paid chronic disease management services.

　　Small and medium-sized housing enterprises choose to cut in from low energy consumption and green ecological technology. "The core of real estate is still the residential industry, and this cannot be lost. The reason is that it can develop rapidly and standardize, and because it has a large market consumer group and belongs to popular products, it has strong anti-risk ability. " Li Biao, chairman of yueda Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. said, "In addition to paying attention to building quality, scientific research and development is also our strength."

　　Previously, Jinmaofu attracted much attention in the industry because it proposed 12 black technologies (to meet residents’ comprehensive household needs such as air, temperature, humidity and noise), and the average price of its housing in Hongkou, Shanghai New Town was about 102,000/square meter.

　　"We already have the 12 major scientific and technological systems of Jinmaofu, and we have a clear understanding of ourselves, that is, to be an expert in quality life operation." Li Biao told the First Financial Reporter, "In addition to residential technology research and development, looking further, we are developing projects around the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations (such as Suzhou, Nantong and Yancheng)."

　　Some real estate big data companies have already quietly laid out. "According to more than 50 major industries involved in real estate, we divided the data into eight thematic directions, including transaction end, residential security end and residential service end." Yan Zhimin, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongfang Information Technology Co., Ltd. told the First Financial Reporter.

　　"For example, in Fuyang, which is more than 20 kilometers away from Hangzhou, the price of a parking space in a certain community reached 800,000, but the house price in the community was around 10,000. At that time, the people and the media were very controversial; Therefore, we assisted the government to make a data analysis and look at the reasonable reasons according to the floor price and market environment. In the future, data-based disaster reduction, shock absorption, escape, etc. will be used to ensure residential safety. " Yan Zhimin added.

People’s Daily editorial on January 1st:

Fully promote the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation with confidence and Chinese modernization

-New Year’s Day dedication

Years engrave glorious dreams and strive to draw magnificent pictures. After an extraordinary year of 2023, we have ushered in a brand-new year.

刚刚过去的2023年，是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年，是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年。这一年，历程波澜壮阔。面对国际政治经济环境不利因素增多、国内周期性和结构性矛盾叠加的错综复杂形势，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民，顶住外部压力、克服内部困难，积极推动经济持续复苏，有序推进党和国家机构改革，有效应对局部地区自然灾害，积极推进对外开放、科技创新、绿色发展，坚定维护国家主权、安全、发展利益，牢牢把握发展主动权。这一年，成绩有目共睹。神舟十六号、十七号载人飞船翱翔寰宇，中国－中亚峰会、第三届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛成功举办，成都大运会、杭州亚运会精彩纷呈，全国粮食总产量创历史新高，连续9年保持在1.3万亿斤以上，我国经济总体回升向好，高质量发展扎实推进，现代化产业体系建设取得重要进展，新质生产力加快形成，改革开放向纵深推进，安全发展基础巩固夯实，民生保障有力有效，中国特色大国外交扎实推进，全面建设社会主义现代化国家迈出坚实步伐。一年来的实践再次证明，“两个确立”对于我们应对各种风险挑战、推进中国式现代化建设具有决定性意义。

看似寻常最奇崛，成如容易却艰辛。新时代以来，面对涉滩之险、爬坡之艰、闯关之难，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领亿万人民迎难而上、知难而进，成功推进和拓展了中国式现代化，不断丰富和发展人类文明新形态，为强国建设、民族复兴伟业提供了更为完善的制度保证、更为坚实的物质基础、更为主动的精神力量，中华民族伟大复兴展现出前所未有的光明前景。从打赢人类历史上规模最大的脱贫攻坚战，实现小康这个中华民族千年梦想，到打响改革攻坚战，推动许多领域实现历史性变革、系统性重塑、整体性重构，再到全方位、全地域、全过程加强生态环境保护，让天更蓝、山更绿、水更清……新时代历程极不寻常、极不平凡，新时代成就鼓舞人心、催人奋进。事实雄辩地证明，中国式现代化走得通、行得稳，是强国建设、民族复兴的康庄大道。

使命如炬，初心如磐。一百多年来，我们党团结带领人民所进行的一切奋斗，就是为了把我国建设成为现代化强国，实现中华民族伟大复兴。党的二十大擘画了全面建设社会主义现代化国家、以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴的宏伟蓝图。习近平总书记指出：“以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，是全党全国各族人民在新时代新征程的中心任务。”前进道路上我们深知，全面建设社会主义现代化国家寄托着中华民族的夙愿和期盼，凝结着一代代人的汗水，我们的前途一片光明，但脚下的路不会是一马平川，必然会遇到各种可以预料和难以预料的风险挑战，必须准备付出更为艰巨、更为艰苦的努力。2024年是中华人民共和国成立75周年，是实施“十四五”规划的关键一年。面向未来，我们要把推进中国式现代化作为最大的政治，把坚持高质量发展作为新时代的硬道理，在党的统一领导下，凝心聚力、踔厉奋发，坚定不移朝着强国建设、民族复兴的宏伟目标奋勇前进。

新征程上，让我们锚定既定目标，增强历史主动。中国式现代化是中国共产党领导的社会主义现代化，习近平总书记强调：“党的领导直接关系中国式现代化的根本方向、前途命运、最终成败。”我们要毫不动摇坚持党的领导，坚持把远大理想和阶段性目标统一起来，树立世界眼光，胸怀“国之大者”，把历史、现实、未来贯通起来，把中国和世界连接起来，在历史前进的逻辑中前进，在时代发展的潮流中发展，不为任何风险所惧，不为任何干扰所惑，始终沿着正确方向坚毅前行，扎实推进中国式现代化建设。

新征程上，让我们团结一心奋斗，凝聚磅礴力量。中国式现代化是全体人民的共同事业，人民是中国式现代化的主体，必须坚持全体人民共同参与、共同建设、共同享有，紧紧依靠全体人民和衷共济、共襄大业。以中国式现代化的美好愿景激励人、鼓舞人、感召人，调动一切可以调动的积极因素，团结一切可以团结的力量，推动广大党员干部群众心往一处想、劲往一处使，满腔热忱地投入到中国式现代化建设中来，让现代化建设成果更多更公平惠及全体人民，就一定能使中国式现代化拥有最可靠、最深厚、最持久的力量源泉。

新征程上，让我们坚持实干笃行，勇于攻坚克难。中国式现代化既是最难的，也是最伟大的。我们面临的各种斗争，不是短期的而是长期的，将伴随实现第二个百年奋斗目标全过程。惟其艰难，才更显勇毅；惟其笃行，才弥足珍贵。我们要在机遇面前主动出击，在困难面前迎难而上，在风险面前积极应对，以愚公移山的志气事不避难、义不逃责，以滴水穿石的毅力真抓实干、埋头苦干，在新时代新征程上铸就新的时代华章、创造新的历史伟业。

大有大的样子，大有大的担当。习近平总书记强调：“我们追求的不是中国独善其身的现代化，而是期待同广大发展中国家在内的各国一道，共同实现现代化。”中国式现代化既造福中国人民，又促进世界各国现代化，是中国谋求人类进步、世界大同的必由之路。我们将坚定站在历史正确的一边、站在人类文明进步的一边，高举和平、发展、合作、共赢旗帜，弘扬全人类共同价值，推动构建人类命运共同体，推动落实全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议，同各国人民携手共创人类的美好未来。

力量在坚定信心中汇聚，目标在拼搏进取中实现。习近平总书记指出：“团结就是力量，信心赛过黄金。”以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，我们信心十足、力量十足。更加紧密地团结在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义，增强“四个意识”、坚定“四个自信”、做到“两个维护”，坚定信心，振奋精神，不懈奋斗，全面建成社会主义现代化强国的目标一定能够实现，中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦一定能够实现。

栏目主编：赵翰露

文字编辑：卢晓川

本文作者：新华社

题图来源：上观题图

图片编辑：徐佳敏

　　"When we enter the fourth year of the pandemic, we are definitely in a much better situation now than a year ago." Tan Desai said that at the peak of the Omicron epidemic, more than 70,000 deaths were reported to WHO every week. By last October, the number had dropped to less than 10,000, which was close to the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

　　On January 27th, Geneva time, the World Health Organization (WHO) held the 14th meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) Emergency Committee on the COVID-19 (Covid-19) pandemic to discuss and evaluate whether the current COVID-19 pandemic still constitutes a public health emergency (PHEIC) of international concern. After the meeting, WHO Director-General Tan Desai will make a final decision according to the recommendations of the Committee. The relevant results are expected to be announced as early as January 30th.

　　Three years ago, on January 30, 2020, WHO announced that the new coronavirus epidemic was a public health emergency of international concern, and issued the highest alert level of United Nations agencies. On March 11th of that year, WHO declared that the COVID-19 epidemic constituted a global pandemic.

　　Thereafter, every few months, the emergency committee will hold a meeting to discuss whether the COVID-19 pandemic meets the standard called "public health emergencies of international concern". The 13th recent meeting was held on October 13th, 2022, and the outcome of the meeting still maintained the global emergency in COVID-19.

　　According to the binding international treaty "International Health Regulations", public health emergencies of international concern need to meet three standards: serious, sudden, abnormal or unexpected; It may spread across national boundaries; It may require a coordinated international response.

　　At the press conference held on December 14th last year, Tan Desai expressed the hope that "COVID-19 pandemic will no longer be a public health emergency of international concern" in 2023. According to reports, the criteria for ending the global emergency in COVID-19 will be discussed at the meeting of the WHO Emergency Committee in COVID-19 in January 2023.

　　Does the current epidemic in China affect the decision?

　　On January 27th, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made an opening speech at the meeting of the Emergency Committee in COVID-19, summarizing the current global epidemic situation.

　　"When we enter the fourth year of the pandemic, we are definitely in a much better situation than a year ago." Tan Desai said that at the peak of the Omicron epidemic, more than 70,000 deaths were reported to WHO every week. By last October, the number had dropped to less than 10,000, which was close to the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

　　However, he pointed out that since the beginning of December last year, the number of deaths reported every week in the world has been rising. The lifting of restrictions in China has led to a sharp increase in the death toll in the world’s most populous country. "Last week, nearly 40,000 people reported to WHO died, more than half of them from China. In the past eight weeks, more than 170,000 deaths have been reported. The actual number is definitely much higher. " At present, WHO has updated the relevant data page (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard) to include the cases and deaths reported in China in recent weeks.

　　Global data of infections and deaths in Covid-19. Source: WHO official website

　　Margaret Harris, a WHO spokeswoman, told Caixin that on January 26th, 2023, China reported more cases and deaths to WHO. From December 9, 2022 to January 23, 2023, more than 87 million cases and more than 75,000 deaths were reported in China (excluding Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan Province). With these additional data, the cumulative number of cases worldwide has increased from more than 664 million to more than 751 million. The cumulative global death toll has risen from more than 6.7 million to nearly 6.8 million.

　　Harris said that China CDC issued additional announcements on January 15th, 21st and 25th, but the data shared were not classified by date, so WHO could not include them in the report. When asked to what extent the information provided by China will affect the decision on whether to lift the state of emergency, Harris only said, "The Committee has reviewed all relevant global data on the issues under consideration."

　　According to the website of China CDC, from December 8, 2022 to January 26, 2023, there were 78,960 cases of Covid-19-related deaths in hospitals nationwide, including 6,473 cases of respiratory failure caused by Covid-19 infection and 72,487 cases of basic diseases complicated with Covid-19 infection.

　　Professor Zhang Style, head of the Department of Epidemiology and tenured professor at UCLA School of Public Health, recently said in a column that considering the future development and control of COVID-19 infection and severe death in China, it is unlikely that WHO will decide to terminate the state of emergency of "public health emergencies" at the meeting at the end of this month. He estimated that if COVID-19 infection and severe death in China were effectively controlled, WHO would declare the end of the state of emergency within this year. However, the possible sequelae caused by COVID-19 need to be further studied and effective methods should be adopted to prevent and treat them.

　　Countries adjust epidemic prevention policies

　　In his speech on January 27th, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pointed out that there are still the following challenges:

　　Vaccines, treatments and diagnostic methods are essential to prevent serious diseases, save lives and reduce the pressure on health systems and health workers. But the global response is still faltering, because in too many countries, these powerful life-saving tools have not yet reached the people who need them most — — Especially the elderly and health workers.

　　Many health systems around the world are struggling to cope with COVID-19, in addition to taking care of patients with other diseases, including influenza and RSV, as well as health workers who are short of work and exhausted.

　　At the same time, the global monitoring and gene sequencing have declined sharply, making it more difficult to track known mutations and detect new mutations. Constant errors and false information are weakening the public’s trust in safe and effective COVID-19 control tools.

　　Liu Shansi, a Chinese virologist at Ohio State University and an academician of the American Academy of Microbiology, said in a recent interview with a reporter from the Science and Technology Department that the toxicity of Omicron has been weakened recently, which can be considered as a change from pandemic to endemic. "The overall trend of virus evolution is that the pathogenicity is getting weaker and weaker, although it will increase at some stages." He pointed out that it is still necessary to be alert to cross-population transmission in Covid-19 and gene recombination in Covid-19, but as long as this kind of situation does not occur, he hopes to see WHO announce the end of COVID-19’s "global pandemic" in 2023.

　　In response to public health emergencies of international concern, WHO will issue a set of action suggestions to countries, including: strengthening surveillance to identify new cases, isolating cases and quarantining contacts; Take measures to screen at borders, airports, ports or entry points; Inform the public about the risks of the disease and the additional protective measures that individuals can take; And if there is no vaccine at present, additional research may be needed to develop treatments or vaccines.

　　A few days ago, Japan and South Korea have successively adjusted their epidemic prevention levels or related epidemic prevention policies.

　　On January 27th, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced that Covid-19 would be downgraded to "Category 5" in the Infectious Diseases Law on May 8th. After the change, the observation time of infected people and close contacts will be cancelled, and medical care will be transformed into a normal system in stages. In addition, it is up to the individual to decide whether to wear a mask indoors or outdoors.

　　On January 20th, Korean Prime Minister Han Dezhu presided over an epidemic prevention meeting to discuss the adjustment of the indoor mandatory mask order. On January 30, the South Korean government announced that from now on, only people are advised to wear masks indoors, and it is no longer mandatory. The Korean government mask order was completely lifted after more than 27 months. However, medical institutions, pharmacies, high-risk places, public transport carriages, etc. will continue to maintain the obligation of indoor masks. For five high-risk situations, Korean epidemic prevention departments strongly recommend wearing masks.

　　The government of China has also adjusted the infection of the new coronavirus from "Class A tube" to "Class B tube" from January 8th. Isolation measures will no longer be implemented for Covid-19 infected people, and close contacts will no longer be judged; No longer delimit high and low risk areas; No longer take quarantine and infectious disease management measures for entry personnel and goods. The detection strategy is adjusted to be willing to check and check.

West Ham United VS Arsenal

After West Ham lost to Everton at home last season, the league suffered two consecutive defeats. The team’s recent performance is really not safe, and it is still difficult to resist when facing the league’s strong teams. At present, it ranks 9 th in the league. West Ham United’s offensive output is acceptable, but the stability of the team’s defense is still insufficient. After Arsenal’s victory over Sheffield United, the league remained unbeaten, and the team is currently ranked second in the league. Arsenal’s offensive output is very strong, and the stability of the defense line is also worthy of praise. Recently, it has been able to score zero opponents in many games.

West Ham United’s overall strength is relatively limited, the team’s recent stability is not high, and the main battle performance is not safe. The Arsenal League has guaranteed unbeaten record so far, and the team’s historical achievements have crushed opponents, so the psychological advantage is very obvious. This time, the team is a guest to challenge their opponents, and I believe that they still have the ability to win from the away game.

Everton VS Burnley

Everton beat West Ham United in the last league. The team’s recent achievements are relatively erratic, showing a plum blossom pile, but its winning ability has indeed improved, and it is currently ranked 15th in the league. Everton’s offensive and defensive ends have also improved to some extent recently. Burnley lost to Bournemouth in the last league, and the league suffered another three-game losing streak. So far, the team has only won one victory, ranking only 19th in the league. Burnley’s offensive output is relatively weak, and the defensive end can be said to be full of loopholes.

Everton’s recent performance is indeed unstable, and the team has no strength against the strong teams, but its winning ability has indeed improved in the face of the weak teams in the league recently. The performance of Burnley, the opponent, continued to be sluggish, and recently suffered a three-game losing streak. This time, Everton is sitting at home to meet the challenge of the weak team, and I believe that I still have the ability to successfully win the opponent at home.

Bournemouth VS Liverpool

Bournemouth defeated Burnley at home in the last league, and finally won the first victory in the league. However, the opponent is really a weak team, and the gold content is really not high. At present, it still ranks 17th in the league. Bournemouth’s front line output is insufficient, and the loopholes at the defense end are not small. Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest at home last season, and the league won two consecutive victories and three unbeaten games. The overall performance of the team has once again strengthened, and it is currently ranked fourth in the league. Liverpool’s offensive output is stable and the defense strength is constantly strengthening.

Bournemouth’s overall strength is very limited, the ability to fight hard is also insufficient, and there is no advantage at home. After all, Liverpool, the rival team, has recently returned to the right track after losing the game unexpectedly, and the stability of both offensive and defensive ends is constantly improving. In addition, Liverpool’s historical achievements have crushed their opponents, and even if they are a guest, they are not afraid.

Manchester United VS Newcastle United

Manchester United lost to the opponent in the last Manchester derby, and was hit by the strong team after winning two consecutive victories. However, the team has won several victories in the near future, and its overall performance has improved. At present, it ranks eighth in the league. Manchester United’s offensive and defensive stability needs to be strengthened. Newcastle United drew away with Wolves in the last league, and the league remained unbeaten in six rounds, but the winning ability was still insufficient, and it is currently ranked sixth in the league. Newcastle United’s offensive output is strong, but the defensive end often has problems.

Manchester United’s domestic and foreign troubles are serious, and the recent achievements and performance of the team are indeed not stable enough. However, as for Chi Hah, he still needs to strive for victory in every game to stabilize the morale of the army. Newcastle United’s overall performance has been stable recently, but its winning ability has indeed declined. In addition, the team’s winning ability in guest games is indeed insufficient. This time, the Red Devils welcomed their opponents at home, and I believe there is still a chance to successfully win their opponents.

Chelsea VS Blackburn

Chelsea lost to brentford at home last season, and the unbeaten game in three rounds of the league ended. Losing the game is really unacceptable, and it is only ranked 11th in the league at present. Chelsea’s offensive output suffered another zero, and the defensive end of the last two league games also lost 2 goals per game. Blackburn lost to Swansea at home in the last league, and its three-game winning streak ended. It is rare for the team to win a winning streak in the near future, and the last game was also ended by opponents. At present, it ranks 12 th in the British Championship. Blackburn’s offensive output is also not stable enough, but fortunately the defense strength has improved recently.

Chelsea’s defeat on the road to the Northern Expedition was indeed a blow to morale, but this time the team ushered in a lower-level league opponent, which was also a rare opportunity for the team to snatch victory and revive morale. Opponent Blackburn rarely won a winning streak recently, but the stability is still insufficient. The last game was terminated by the opponent, and the efficiency of the team’s offensive end really needs to be strengthened. This time, Chelsea played at home to meet the challenge of Championship team Blackburn Rovers. I believe it is not too difficult to win the opponent.

Dortmund VS Hoffenheim

The recent performances of both sides are relatively stable, but Dortmund’s achievements in the past battles have crushed opponents, and their psychological advantages are very obvious. This time, I took a strong home game against my opponent, and I believe I still have the ability to continue my outstanding achievements.

Frejborg VS paderborn

Although Frejborg’s performance is erratic, he has a strong ability to score points in the main battle. Paderborn, the opponent, is a team in the middle reaches of German B, and its overall strength is relatively limited. I’m afraid it’s very difficult to be a guest and challenge Frejborg.

Hertha Berlin VS Mainz

Hertha Berlin’s current situation is erratic, but it is good to win more and lose less, and at the same time, the main battle ability is not weak. Although the opponent Mainz is a high-level league team, the team’s performance so far has not been satisfactory. This time the two sides met, Hertha Berlin still had a chance to defend the unbeaten home.

Udinese VS Cagliari

Udinese’s winning ability is limited, but his recent performance is fairly safe. Although the opponent Cagliari won the first victory in the league in the last campaign, the overall stability is still insufficient, and at the same time, the ability to fight is not good. This time, Udinese is at home, and I believe he still has a certain advantage.

Estrogen is a "spring-protecting pill" for women, whose skin is white and beautiful, long legs and exquisite figure depend on it to some extent.

So, don’t let your estrogen balance be insufficient!

So, what are the symptoms of estrogen deficiency and what should I do?

Estrogen is one of the "female" hormones secreted by ovary, and it is an important hormone in female endocrine system. It maintains the health of female body in many aspects, including reproductive system, bone, cardiovascular system and nervous system.

Estrogen plays many roles in the female body, including:

Promoting sexual maturity:Estrogen is the main hormone of female sexual maturity, which controls female menstrual cycle and ovarian function.

Maintain bone health:Estrogen helps to maintain bone density and protect women from bone diseases such as osteoporosis.

Maintaining cardiovascular health:Estrogen can help reduce the risk of heart disease in women and protect women from some other cardiovascular diseases.

Maintain skin health:Estrogen plays a key role in maintaining the health of women’s skin, which maintains the vitality, elasticity and health of cells.

Under normal circumstances, as long as the ovarian function is normal, women generally do not have estrogen deficiency, and estrogen can be dynamically adjusted, and occasionally the body will adjust quickly after a night. However, in these three cases, there will still be insufficient estrogen.

1. Age factor

With the increase of women’s age, ovarian function gradually declines, and the level of estrogen secretion decreases year by year.

2. Health factors

After a woman suffers from mastitis, the estrogen produced in her body will decrease. In addition, such as polycystic ovary syndrome, thyroid problems and anemia, may lead to female estrogen deficiency. Due to abnormal ovarian function or other serious diseases, women may experience irregular menstrual cycle, and irregular menstruation may lead to a decline in estrogen levels.

3. Life factors

Excessive consumption of estrogen-containing food, long-term busy lifestyle, smoking, excessive drinking and inability to cope with stressful life will also lead to insufficient estrogen in women.

Female estrogen deficiency may have different effects on women’s body, mood and cognition. Here are some common symptoms:

oneClimacteric symptoms

Female estrogen deficiency is one of the main causes of menopausal symptoms. With the advent of menopause, women may have a variety of discomfort symptoms, such as hot flashes, sweating, headache, palpitations, insomnia, anxiety and depression, which are all caused by estrogen deficiency.

2. cardiovascular diseases

Studies have found that estrogen can resist oxidation, inhibit platelet aggregation, reduce atherosclerotic plaques and other protective effects, and estrogen deficiency will increase the risk of cardiovascular disease in women.

3. Osteoporosis

Estrogen is very important for bone health. It can promote calcium absorption and bone growth. When estrogen is insufficient, bone density will gradually decrease, increasing the risk of osteoporosis.

4. Skin problems

Estrogen deficiency can make women’s skin dry, lose elasticity and appear fine lines.

5. Mental state changes

Studies have shown that estrogen can regulate neurotransmitters in the brain and affect mood and behavior. Estrogen deficiency can lead to mental state changes such as mood swings, irritability and insomnia in women.

Step 1 pay attention to diet

Nutrients in diet have a great influence on estrogen level. You can eat more foods rich in vitamin B, iron, calcium, zinc, folic acid, tea phenol, etc., such as bean products, grains, fruits, vegetables, flaxseed, oats, alfalfa, etc., which are also helpful to improve cardiovascular health. At the same time, women should avoid eating excessively greasy food.

Step 2 exercise actively

Exercise is another good way to keep healthy, which can promote the synthesis of estrogen and help women maintain good physical condition and endocrine system function. It is recommended to do at least 150 minutes of aerobic exercise every week, such as running, walking, swimming and yoga.

3. A healthy lifestyle

Women should try to avoid unhealthy lifestyles such as smoking, drinking and excessive stress, which will have a negative impact on estrogen levels. At the same time, it is necessary to correctly handle psychological pressure, and through decompression skills and maintaining emotional stability, it can help women to better regulate the endocrine system to stabilize the estrogen level in the body.

4. Hormone replacement therapy

For severe symptoms of estrogen deficiency, hormone replacement therapy can be considered, that is, synthetic estrogen is used to replace the estrogen lacking in the body. Modern medicine provides many types of artificial estrogens for treatment, including oral drugs, patches and gels. Patients can discuss with their doctors the most suitable alternative treatment, and the dosage and duration are usually customized according to the patient’s individualization.

However, long-term use of estrogen replacement therapy will reduce the level of estrogen, so it must be used under the guidance of a doctor to avoid the adverse effects of estrogen replacement therapy.

Finally, although estrogen is important, it can’t be supplemented indiscriminately, let alone the more the better. Supplementing too much is not only beneficial to the body, but also may lead to hysteromyoma, mammary gland hyperplasia, menstrual disorder and so on, and even increase the probability of breast cancer and endometrial cancer. Therefore, those health care products on the market that claim to maintain ovaries suggest that you eat less.

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"Standing at the intersection of the new free travel in golden decade, whoever can accurately understand the needs of users and provide personalized gameplay products will take the lead in the next era of tourism industry development." Chen Gang, founder and CEO of Ma Honeycomb, said at the "2023 Earth Discoverer Conference".

On December 8th, at the "Earth Discoverer Conference" hosted by Ma Honeycomb, the joint laboratory of free travel big data jointly established by china tourism academy and Ma Honeycomb released "Research Report 2023" (A Collection of Global Travel Plays), which provided a new reference example for the industry. It is reported that "Gameplay 2023" has strictly selected tens of thousands of gameplays from 130 countries around the world, and finally compiled two lists of "Top 100 New Gameplays for Domestic Tourism" and "Top 100 New Gameplays for Foreign Tourism" to recommend more unique travel experiences for travelers and guide industry partners to create more attractive tourism products.

Dai Bin, president of china tourism academy, said, "After three years of deep depression, tourism has entered a period of rapid recovery. It is expected that the recovery of the domestic tourism market will reach more than 90% in 2019 this year, which is very remarkable. Seeing the smile on the tourists’ faces is also my happiest thing. But what makes me happier is to see that the tourists like Ma Honeycomb still keep a young heart to explore and innovate after going through hardships. They deeply observe the needs of tourists and sum up a number of keywords such as personalization, theme, experience and quality. These detailed needs are the cornerstones of today’s tourism’ new gameplay’. "

(Left: Dai Bin, Dean of china tourism academy; Right: Chen Gang, founder and CEO of Ma Honeycomb)

2023 is a year of rapid recovery of tourism industry, and new tourism behavior preferences are gradually becoming clear. According to Chen Gang, in 2023, the proportion of users who searched for intentional destination gameplay exceeded 76%, and the popularity of customized tour search increased by 245% year-on-year. The popularity of high-quality demand continued to rise, and the booking of cost-effective products also increased significantly. This means that the Local travel experience has become the main factor affecting people’s consumption decisions.

"We can’t simply understand’ travel experience’ as eating better and having more fun. For young people today, any idea that can strengthen their self-expression is a plus item of travel experience, and we collectively call it’ new gameplay’". Chen Gang said, "We have specially refined the content of’ new gameplay’ based on the core contents such as Polaris Raiders and Raiders Group. Every destination has a raiders expert from Mawei to sort out a detailed new gameplay map and update it in real time according to the changes of the trend. At present, Ma Honeycomb has matched the corresponding services and products for the gameplay map through a brand-new supply chain, forming a one-stop travel service closed loop of "planting and pulling together" to help consumers realize the ultimate experience of what you see is what you get. "

The Ma Honeycomb community is also fully upgraded around the "new gameplay". In Ni Jia’s view, in the face of the brand-new personalized tourism demand, the best response formula is to provide different new gameplay exchange positions for different segments of the population. "For example, for the Z-generation’ new youth’ who is looking forward to socializing and advocating freedom, Ma Honeycomb not only launched a large number of new city weekends, but also provided opportunities to find travel partners; Facing the’ new middle-class families’ who prefer light and luxurious gameplay and pay attention to emotional value, they provide a series of new and subdivided gameplay including long-distance travel and parent-child travel; For’ senior travelers’ who pay attention to in-depth experience and humanistic value, Ma Honeycomb continues to deepen the content of outbound travel, design various novel experience routes abroad, and launch activities to send them back to a new world. " Ni Jia said that the new gameplay community ecology based on different people and different circles will better meet the personalized travel needs.

At the same time, "new gameplay" has also become a favorable starting point for marketing. Liu Tingting, head of commercial marketing of Mawei, said that the core of Mawei’s marketing is to help destinations and brands find the right people, do the right content and then spread it to more right people. "The community and the strategy group upgraded this year are the first steps for Mawei to find accurate marketing people. The so-called’ right content’ is to explore and even create the destination experience under the drive of new gameplay, and thus create new theme products, trigger IP linkage, let users see, buy, feel, and then spread to more people. " According to reports, Ma Honeycomb has created a brand-new gameplay experience for many destinations at home and abroad in 2023, and promoted it through various channels and forms. "The new gameplay is like a key to open the door to new tourism marketing, which will rejuvenate traditional destinations, take mature destinations to a new level, and let brands find new scenes of tourism marketing. We are also looking forward to working with more destinations and brands to open up the infinite possibilities of’ new gameplay’." (Reporter Zhan Zhao)

Source: Guangming Net

History is an evil teacher who only tells the truth to free people.

-Lord acton

For some countries or nations, history may be a fetter and a burden, but if you want to liberate from history, the safest and most reliable means is to recognize history.How a country’s citizens know about history determines what kind of future this country will have to a certain extent.Therefore, a correct understanding of history is extremely important for us at present.

Hegel said, "The only lesson that human beings have learned from history is that they have not learned any lessons from history". The reason for this is precisely because human beings have all kinds of wrong understandings of history. However, a historian, with his vigilance and insight, corrected the wrong cognitive model of history and helped us learn wisdom from history and enhance our realm. He is Lord acton.

From Lord acton’s works such as Freedom and Power and Lectures on Modern History, The Prophet Bookstore summarized the following four ideological paths of understanding history, each of which is a historical thinking that goes straight to the bottom:

1. History lies not in abundance, but in truth.

In human history, there are many false histories, the most typical of which is the "history" from the hands of autocratic monarchs. In order to maintain their own orthodoxy, they always delete historical materials and monopolize history. If we want to break away from the domination of power in the vast "history" where fakes are everywhere, we must have the knowledge and courage to find the truth.

Acton believes that the value of history lies not in its richness, but in its credibility. No matter how much false history is piled up, it is equivalent to garbage. It is better not to have it. Only in reliable historical facts can human beings learn real lessons.

2. Meaning is not in the present, but in eternity.

People usually think that the main significance of history is to provide lessons for the present. This is not wrong, but if it is only so, it will be a bit narrow. Because "the present" is always full of disputes and agitation, and the sacred and just beliefs should be detached from it and need to be formed in a quiet space.

Acton said, "Beyond credibility, it is a question of detachment". The key point of historical significance lies in "grasping the eternal problems, so that we are free from limiting the transient and changeable things". Reading history lies in thinking about the origin and root of things, thus gaining a transcendental wisdom.

3. Truth is important, but morality is more important.

In the face of history, if we only pay attention to the truth, it is often easy to draw wrong conclusions. For example, ancient aristocratic rule had many disadvantages, which is a fact, but it does not lead to the conclusion that civilian rule is better. As acton said, "The question is not which specific class is not suitable for ruling, but all classes are not suitable for ruling". Without the universal morality of mankind as a whole, any rule is dangerous.

Acton believes that "ideas are often repeated, rules of conduct are often changed, and creeds also rise and fall, but moral laws are engraved on the eternal monument". Therefore, history must have morality and faith running through it, and we must return to caring for people themselves. Without the restraint of moral principles, history can easily lead to blind hatred and become a call for slaughter.

4. Great history bears witness to the wisdom of God.

Acton believes that if we don’t take into account the history of 3,000 years, we can’t find philosophy in the historical observation of nearly a hundred years in modern times. But compared with ancient history, the cognition of modern history is more important. Because the transformation of mankind from barbarism to civilization in modern history helps us to see that "the wisdom of God’s rule is not reflected in the perfection of the world, but in the improvement of the world".

Modern history "tells our own story and is a record of our own life". Modern history "still hinders the pace of human beings and puzzles the human mind", and every part of modern history "contains extremely precious lessons". If we don’t know how to use the precedents and teachings, we will only repeat the same mistakes in the future and pay a huge price.

The above four points are only a small part of Lord acton’s historical insights. What he warned by moral laws is the weakness of the whole human race and the universal humanity. Acton’s unique transcendence and historical concern made him a prophet, but he was destined to be a minority in history.

Generally speaking, historical research values scientific methods, objective facts and impartial attitude; However, acton’s historical research is the last echo of western classical liberalism, and what he emphasized is precisely the points farthest from history in our eyes-freedom, morality and faith. This unique historical perspective is unfamiliar to Chinese people, but also lacking-perhaps this is the fundamental reason why China has not been able to get out of the cycle of chaos control for thousands of years.